Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Market in Prince George's, Montgomery County, DC and Northern Virginia? Ask the Concierge

Ask the Concierge is a reader-question column. Letters are edited and details changed. General educational information, not legal or financial advice.

Dear Concierge,

My wife and I are renting in Silver Spring and want to buy next spring, ideally somewhere in Prince George's County to get more house. Her parents are also thinking about selling their place in Bowie and moving closer to us. Every article I read says something different: one says it's a buyer's market, the next says homes are still selling in a week. Which is it? And does the answer change depending on which side of the transaction you're on?

Confused in Silver Spring

Dear Confused,

Both articles were right. They were just describing different places, and probably different price points, on different weeks.

The phrase "the market" is doing a lot of damage here. There is no DMV market. There is a Fort Washington colonial under $500,000 market, a Bethesda market above the jumbo line, a DC condo market, and a McLean market, and right now they aren't even in the same season. So let me give you the framework first, then the numbers, then what it means for you and for your in-laws, because those are two different answers.

What "hot," "normal" and "cold" actually mean

Agents throw these words around loosely. Here is how I define them, using three numbers you can look up for any zip code.

Months of supply. Take the number of active listings and divide by the number of homes selling per month. Under about four months, sellers have the leverage. Four to six is balanced. Over six, buyers have it. This is the single most useful number in real estate and almost nobody outside the business knows it.

Median days on market. How long it takes half the listings to go under contract. Single digits to about two weeks is hot. Three to six weeks is normal. Past two months, it's cold.

Sale-to-list ratio. What homes actually sell for as a percentage of what they were listed at. Over 100 percent means bidding wars. Around 97 to 99 percent is normal negotiation. Below 95 percent, sellers are capitulating.

A hot market is all three pointing the same way: under three months of supply, homes gone in a week, closing over asking. You saw it in 2021. Buyers waive inspections, write letters to sellers, and lose four houses before they get one. The only defense is to be completely ready before you look: fully underwritten pre-approval, a hard ceiling you've agreed on at the kitchen table, and a clear list of what you actually need versus what you'd like.

A normal market has inventory in the four-to-six-month range, contracts in three to five weeks, and homes closing a little under asking. Nobody is desperate. Buyers can write below list and expect a counter instead of silence. Sellers who price right still sell; sellers who price to 2022 sit.

A cold market is six-plus months of supply, listings aging past sixty days, and price reductions on a third of what's active. Buyers can take their time and negotiate hard. The mistake buyers make in a cold market is the mirror image of the hot-market mistake: they get so attached to winning the negotiation that they lose the house over the last $5,000.

Where the DMV is right now

Now the numbers, and this is where your two articles stop contradicting each other.

Prince George's County is the closest thing to a normal market in the region, and it got there recently. The Prince George's County Association of REALTORS reported that July inventory hit a five-year high for the month while values held and pending sales ran ahead of last year. In April the county's median days on market was 21, according to PGCAR's spring report, with homes still closing near asking. Active listings were up almost 30 percent year over year this spring, the biggest inventory build in the metro. Translation: more choice, more room to negotiate on the house that's been sitting, and still a fast sale for the house that's priced right. That's normal, leaning toward buyer-friendly for the first time in years.

Montgomery County is a notch warmer. Supply was running around two and a quarter months this spring, still technically a seller's market, with well-priced homes in the sought-after zips going under contract in about a week and everything else taking a month or more. Prices are flat to slightly down year over year. Hot at the good address, normal everywhere else.

The District is the soft spot. Bright MLS forecast last December that the DC metro would be the only mid-Atlantic region to see prices fall in 2026, with active listings up about 14 percent, and the reason is the one everybody in this town already knows: federal job uncertainty. DC's median price was down double digits year over year this spring even as homes that did sell moved quickly. That's a market where buyers have leverage on price but not on time, which is an unusual and useful combination.

Northern Virginia is the widest spread. Close-in Arlington and Alexandria still behave like a seller's market for anything under the jumbo line. Farther out, the exurban counties are among the region's weakest, per that same Bright MLS forecast, because return-to-office pulled demand back toward the core.

So which is it?

For you, buying in Prince George's next spring: normal, with the wind at your back. You'll have options you didn't have two years ago. Write real offers, keep your inspection, and don't overpay for the house that was listed Thursday just because it feels like 2021 for one weekend. It isn't.

For your in-laws, selling in Bowie: still fine, but pricing is the whole game now. With inventory at a five-year high, the overpriced listing is the one that sits, and the one that sits gets the lowball. Price it to the last ninety days of comps, not to what the neighbor got in 2022, and it moves in three weeks. Price it to hope and it becomes the house buyers use as leverage against the one next door. And if the house needs work before it's ready, or they'd rather trade a little price for certainty, those are real options with real tradeoffs; I lay them out side by side in the 60-Second Smart Selling Options guide.

And notice something: you're buying in a market that's cooling and they're selling in the same one. That's not bad news for the family. It means the sale won't be a bidding war and the purchase won't be either. Both transactions get to be planned instead of survived.

One last thing. All of these numbers move monthly, and the ones above are a snapshot. Before you write an offer or set a price, get the current figures for the specific zip code and price band, not the county and certainly not the metro. Averages are where good decisions go to die.

Travell

Have a question for the column?

If you're buying in Prince George's, Montgomery County, the District or Northern Virginia, start with the 60-Second Buyer Guide. It covers how to read a market before you write an offer, and what to keep in the contract when the market lets you.

If you're thinking about selling, the 60-Second Smart Selling Options guide compares full preparation, targeted repairs, selling as-is and a cash offer, with what each one costs you. Then request your Home Wealth Snapshot for a current value and a pricing conversation, no listing required.

Travell Eiland, Broker Associate, The Concierge Agency. Making Real Estate Dreams Come True.